إصدار
الحقوق الفكرية (c) 2026 Osama Abu Nahel, Ibrahim Al-Zaeem (Author)

هذا العمل مرخص بموجب Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The Future of Israel in the United States and Western Europe: Shifts in Political Legitimacy Post-Gaza War
Corresponding Author(s) : Osama Abu Nahel
مجلة المبادرة ,
مجلد 5 عدد 2 (2026)
الملخص
This study examines the shifts in Israel's political legitimacy across the United States and Western Europe following the 2023 Gaza War. It posits that the Western support is no longer a monolithic bloc but has undergone a process of "normative fragmentation" under the pressure of moral and legal conditionality. Employing a comparative analytical approach, the research utilizes a “divergence indicators” framework to measure the gap between grassroots legitimacy (based on Pew Research Center, YouGov, and Eurobarometer data) and official/institutional legitimacy.
The findings suggest a structural transformation in legitimacy: while the United States maintains a “strategic legitimacy,” Western Europe exhibits sharp variations among models of “steadfast support” (Germany), “pragmatic balancing” (France), and “critical revisionism” (Spain and Ireland). The study highlights the role of “responsiveness to international institutional pressures” as a mediating variable that has redefined the boundaries of political acceptability in Western discourse
تنزيل الاقتباسات
Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS)BibTeX
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- • Barnes-Dacey, J.; Bianco, C. & Lovatt, H. (March 6, 2024). “The Gaza Crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s shifting battle lines.” European Council on Foreign Relations. https://ecfr.eu/topic/gaza-crisis/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- • Belkaïd, A. (Nov 2023). “Dossier Israël-Palestine: l’embrasement, et après? L’engrenage guerrier.” Le Monde Diplomatique. https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2023/11/BELKAID/66267
- • Belkaïd, A. (Mars 2023). “Israël-Palestine une terre a vif: L’hubris d’Israël” Le Monde diplomatique. https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/mav/193/BELKAID/66509
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- • “H.R.8034 - Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024.” 118th Congress (2023-2024). Congress. GOV. (April 20, 2024). https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house bill/8034?utm_source=chatgpt.com
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- • Hurd, I. (2007). After Anarchy: Legitimacy and Power in the United Nations Security Council. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
- • Henley, J. (June 3, 2025). “Public support for Israel in Western Europe at lowest ever recorded by YouGov.” The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/03/public-support-for-israel-in-western-europe-lowest-ever-recorded-yougov?utm_source=chatgpt.com
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- • “Latest Surveys & Publications: 10 latest surveys.” Eurobarometer Public Opinion in the European Union. EP Autumn 2025 survey. European Parliament. (Feb 2026). https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/screen/home?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- • McNeil, S. & Joyner, E. (June 23, 2025). ”EU finds indications Israel is breaching Key Human rights agreement in Gaza.” AP. https://apnews.com/article/european-union-israel-trade-gaza-c6c0e523c6b4faa9b7675afdd66c54da
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- • “Poll Shows a Historical Decline in Americans' Support for Israel”. Al Jazeera Net. (February 27, 2026). https://www.ajnet.me/news/2026/2/27/%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D9%8A%D8%B8%D9%87%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%B9%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AE%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AA%D8%A3%D9%8A%D9%8A%D8%AF
- • Saad, L. (March 16, 2023). “Democrats’ Sympathies in Middle East Shift to Palestinians.” Gallup News. https://news.gallup.com/poll/472070/democrats-sympathies-middle-east-shift-palestinians.aspx
- • Schultz, K. A. (2001). Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. Cambridge University Press.
- • Silver, L. (July 11, 2022). “When Americans think about Israel, what do they have in mind?” PEW Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/07/11/when-americans-think-about-israel-what-do-they-have-in-mind/
- • Silver, L. & Fagen, M. (July 11, 2022). “American views of Israel.” PEW Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/07/11/american-views-of-israel/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- • Silver, L.; Keeter, S.; Lippert, J. & Mohamed, B. (March 21, 2024). “Views of the Israel-Hamas war.” PEW Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/03/21/views-of-the-israel-hamas-war/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
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- • Smith, M. (July 3, 2023). “Attitudes to the Israel-Palestine conflict in Western Europe and the USA in 2023.” YouGov EuroTrack. https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/45869-attitudes-israel-palestine-conflict-western-europe?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- • Smith, M. (Nov 8, 2024). “EuroTrack: Israel, Gaza, and the wider Middle East conflict, one year on.” YouGov. https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/50898-eurotrack-israel-gaza-and-the-wider-middle-east-conflict-one-year- on?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- • Smith, M. (June 3, 2025). “Net favorability towards Israel reaches new lows in key Western European countries.” YouGov. https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/52279-net-favourability-towards-israel-reaches-new-lows-in-key-western-european-countries?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- • “Standard Eurobarometer 101 - Spring 2024: Find all results in the Reports and documents section.” European Union. https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3216
- • “The European Union and Israel.” Delegation of the European Union to the State of Israel. European Union. (July 28, 2021). https://www.eeas.europa.eu/israel/european-union-and-israel_en?s=200&utm_source=chatgpt.com
- • Tzidkiyahu, M. S. & Bermant, A. (Nov 2024). “Europe’s Response to the War in Gaza: Capabilities and Actorness.” Strategic Assessment: A Multidisciplinary Journal on National Security. The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). 27(4). 74-90. https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Adkan27.4_ENG_5.pdf
- • “U.S relations with Israel.” U.S. Department of State. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-israel
- • Vaïsse, M. (1998). French Foreign Policy since 1945. New York, Oxford: Berghahn Books.
- • Van Green, T.; Shepard, S.; Cerda, A.; Borelli, G. & Kiley, Jocelyn. (Oct 3, 2025). “How Americans View the Israel-Hamas Conflict 2 Years into the War”. PEW Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/10/03/how-americans-view-the-israel-hamas-conflict-2-years-into-the-war/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- • Yevseenko, A. S. (Dec 2025). “War in Gaza and the US 2024 Election Campaign.” Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 95(Suppl 3). S300-S308. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331625601720
- • Zengerle, P. & Lange, J. (Aug 20, 2025). “Most Americans believe countries should recognize Palestinian state, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/most-americans-believe-countries-should-recognize-palestinian-state-reutersipsos-2025-08-20/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
المراجع
• “Aid to Gaza: E3 foreign ministers' statement, 23 April 2025: Joint statement on behalf of the Foreign Ministers of France, Germany and the UK on more than 50 days of Israel's block on aid to Gaza.” Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and The Rt Hon David Lammy MP. GOV. UK. (April 23, 2025). https://www.gov.uk/government/news/aid-to-gaza-e3-foreign-ministers-statement-23-april-2025
• “Australia joins UK and Canada in formally recognising Palestinian state.” The Guardian. (Sep 21, 2025). https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/21/australia-joins-uk-and-canada-in-formally-recognising-palestinian-state?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• “Australia’s royal dilemma as King Charles serves conflicting Commonwealth interests with Trump.” The Interpreter. (June 11, 2025). https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-s-royal-dilemma-king-charles-serves-conflicting-commonwealth-interests?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Banco, E.; Landay, J. & Pamuk, Humeyra. (Jan 30, 2026). “US envoys to Israel blocked early warning of 'Apocalyptic Wasteland' in Gaza.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/early-warning-apocalyptic-wasteland-gaza-blocked-by-us-envoys-israel-2026-01-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Barnes-Dacey, J.; Bianco, C. & Lovatt, H. (March 6, 2024). “The Gaza Crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s shifting battle lines.” European Council on Foreign Relations. https://ecfr.eu/topic/gaza-crisis/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Belkaïd, A. (Nov 2023). “Dossier Israël-Palestine: l’embrasement, et après? L’engrenage guerrier.” Le Monde Diplomatique. https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2023/11/BELKAID/66267
• Belkaïd, A. (Mars 2023). “Israël-Palestine une terre a vif: L’hubris d’Israël” Le Monde diplomatique. https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/mav/193/BELKAID/66509
• “Department Press Briefing – March 25, 2024.” U. S. Department of State. Washington, D.C. (March 25, 2024). https://2021-2025.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-march-25-2024/?safe=1
• “EP resolutions: Humanitarian situation in Gaza, the need to reach a ceasefire and the risks of regional escalation.” Delegations: European Parliament. (January 18, 2024). https://www.europarl.europa.eu/delegations/en/d-il/documents/ep resolutions?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• “EP Spring 2025 Survey, Invest in What Matters.” European Union. Retrieved on (01/02/2026). From https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3572?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• “European Council conclusions of 18 December 2025.” European Council, Council of the European Union. (Dec 18, 2025). https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-position-situation-middle-east/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• “European Council Conclusions on the Middle East, Jun 26, 2025.” European Council, Council of the European Union. (June 26, 2025). https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/06/26/european-council-conclusions-on-the-middle-east/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• “Germany against suspending EU deal with Israel, official says.” Reuters. (June 23, 2025). https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/germany-against-suspending-eu-deal-with-israel-official-says-2025-06-23/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Fearon, J. D. (Sep 1994). “Domestic political audiences and the escalation of international disputes.” American Political Science Review, 88(3), 577–592. https://doi.org/10.2307/2944796
• “H.R.8034 - Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024.” 118th Congress (2023-2024). Congress. GOV. (April 20, 2024). https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house bill/8034?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Hurd, I. (Spring 1999). “Legitimacy and Authority in International Politics.” International Organization. Vol. 53(2). 379-408. https://doi.org/10.1162/002081899550913
• Hurd, I. (2007). After Anarchy: Legitimacy and Power in the United Nations Security Council. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Henley, J. (June 3, 2025). “Public support for Israel in Western Europe at lowest ever recorded by YouGov.” The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/03/public-support-for-israel-in-western-europe-lowest-ever-recorded-yougov?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Ikenberry, G. J. (2001). After Victory. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Kundnani, H. (2015). The Paradox of German Power. Oxford University Press.
• “Latest Surveys & Publications: 10 latest surveys.” Eurobarometer Public Opinion in the European Union. EP Autumn 2025 survey. European Parliament. (Feb 2026). https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/screen/home?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• McNeil, S. & Joyner, E. (June 23, 2025). ”EU finds indications Israel is breaching Key Human rights agreement in Gaza.” AP. https://apnews.com/article/european-union-israel-trade-gaza-c6c0e523c6b4faa9b7675afdd66c54da
• Pardo, S. (2015). Normative Power Europe and Israel: Perceptions and Realities. Lexington Books.
• “Poll Shows a Historical Decline in Americans' Support for Israel”. Al Jazeera Net. (February 27, 2026). https://www.ajnet.me/news/2026/2/27/%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D9%8A%D8%B8%D9%87%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%B9%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AE%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AA%D8%A3%D9%8A%D9%8A%D8%AF
• Saad, L. (March 16, 2023). “Democrats’ Sympathies in Middle East Shift to Palestinians.” Gallup News. https://news.gallup.com/poll/472070/democrats-sympathies-middle-east-shift-palestinians.aspx
• Schultz, K. A. (2001). Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. Cambridge University Press.
• Silver, L. (July 11, 2022). “When Americans think about Israel, what do they have in mind?” PEW Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/07/11/when-americans-think-about-israel-what-do-they-have-in-mind/
• Silver, L. & Fagen, M. (July 11, 2022). “American views of Israel.” PEW Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/07/11/american-views-of-israel/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Silver, L.; Keeter, S.; Lippert, J. & Mohamed, B. (March 21, 2024). “Views of the Israel-Hamas war.” PEW Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/03/21/views-of-the-israel-hamas-war/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Silver, L. (April 8, 2025). “How Americans view Israel and the Israel-Hamas war at the start of Trump’s second term.” PEW Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/04/08/how-americans-view-israel-and-the-israel-hamas-war-at-the-start-of-trumps-second-term/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Smith, M. (July 3, 2023). “Attitudes to the Israel-Palestine conflict in Western Europe and the USA in 2023.” YouGov EuroTrack. https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/45869-attitudes-israel-palestine-conflict-western-europe?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Smith, M. (Nov 8, 2024). “EuroTrack: Israel, Gaza, and the wider Middle East conflict, one year on.” YouGov. https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/50898-eurotrack-israel-gaza-and-the-wider-middle-east-conflict-one-year- on?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Smith, M. (June 3, 2025). “Net favorability towards Israel reaches new lows in key Western European countries.” YouGov. https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/52279-net-favourability-towards-israel-reaches-new-lows-in-key-western-european-countries?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• “Standard Eurobarometer 101 - Spring 2024: Find all results in the Reports and documents section.” European Union. https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3216
• “The European Union and Israel.” Delegation of the European Union to the State of Israel. European Union. (July 28, 2021). https://www.eeas.europa.eu/israel/european-union-and-israel_en?s=200&utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Tzidkiyahu, M. S. & Bermant, A. (Nov 2024). “Europe’s Response to the War in Gaza: Capabilities and Actorness.” Strategic Assessment: A Multidisciplinary Journal on National Security. The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). 27(4). 74-90. https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Adkan27.4_ENG_5.pdf
• “U.S relations with Israel.” U.S. Department of State. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-israel
• Vaïsse, M. (1998). French Foreign Policy since 1945. New York, Oxford: Berghahn Books.
• Van Green, T.; Shepard, S.; Cerda, A.; Borelli, G. & Kiley, Jocelyn. (Oct 3, 2025). “How Americans View the Israel-Hamas Conflict 2 Years into the War”. PEW Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/10/03/how-americans-view-the-israel-hamas-conflict-2-years-into-the-war/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Yevseenko, A. S. (Dec 2025). “War in Gaza and the US 2024 Election Campaign.” Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 95(Suppl 3). S300-S308. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331625601720
• Zengerle, P. & Lange, J. (Aug 20, 2025). “Most Americans believe countries should recognize Palestinian state, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/most-americans-believe-countries-should-recognize-palestinian-state-reutersipsos-2025-08-20/?utm_source=chatgpt.com